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Better System Trader

Better System Trader

Better System Trader is the podcast and blog dedicated to systematic traders, providing practical tips from trading experts around the world.

040 – Algorithmic Forecasting with Larry Williams

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Larry Williams has been a guest of the podcast before, sharing insights from 50 years of trading in Episode 20.

In 1987 he won the World Cup Championship of Futures Trading ® *, turning $10,000 in to over $1.1 million in 12 months.

He is a published author, with a long list of best-selling books and has also created a number of market indicators including Williams %R, Ultimate Oscillator, the Williams Accumulation/Distribution Indicator, COT indices, cycle forecasts, market sentiment and value measures.

In this episode we’ll be discussing algorithmic forecasting, the methods and applications of forecasting, cycles and seasonality, plus some forecasts for the markets in 2016.

‘What makes forecasts accurate is that markets tend to repeat’ – Larry Williams

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In this episode we discuss

  • Why algorithmic forecasting can be so interesting and so challenging
  • Is forecasting just an academic exercise or can it actually be applied to real trading?
  • The difference between Larrys forecasts and others made in the media
  • How past cycles can project what may happen in the future
  • How Larry actually generates forecasts based on past market behaviour
  • Factors that can make forecasts inaccurate and why some factors aren’t even considered when forecasting
  • How the forecasting process has changed over the years
  • Forecasts for the Australian and US markets in 2016
  • Which factors have the best forecasting ability

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Resources

    • Larry can be followed through his website ireallytrade.com
    • If you want to know more about Larrys 2016 forecast, it’s available here
    • 10 outrageous predictions for 2016 – Saxo Bank
    • 10 outrageous predictions for 2016 – JB Marwood

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Quotes

We can pretty well isolate when the cyclical highs and lows should come this year

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I think cycles and seasonals have the best record of forecasting the future

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Cycles phase in and out so you have to know how to identify and respond

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Transcript

*Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The World Cup Championship of Futures Trading is a registered mark of Robbins Trading Company’s affiliate Robbins Financial Group. Accounts trading in the World Cup Trading Championships (WCC) do not necessarily represent all the WCC accounts controlled by the competitor and may produce results different than the results achieved in other WCC accounts of the competitor.

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Episode Released:

17 January 2016

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Comments

  1. Django

    January 18, 2016 at 5:31 pm

    What technology software LW uses for forecasting ?
    Thanks in advance

  2. Larry Williams

    January 19, 2016 at 6:25 am

    I use both the signal and Tradestation, primarily Tradestation. In fact in Tradestation we have one of the tools I developed, cycle searcher, that allows you to check for the various cycles operative in the marketplace. The natural cycles I use for my forecast, however, are not part of that they are in my private stuff

Trackbacks

  1. Quantocracy's Daily Wrap for 01/17/2016 | Quantocracy says:
    January 31, 2016 at 4:20 pm

    […] Podcast: Algorithmic Forecasting with Larry Williams [Better System Trader] Larry Williams has been a guest of the podcast before, sharing insights from 50 years of trading in Episode 20. In 1987 he won the World Cup trading championship, turning $10,000 in to over $1.1 million in 12 months. He is a published author, with a long list of best-selling books and has also created a number of market indicators including Williams %R, Ultimate Oscillator, the Williams […]

  2. Best Links of the Last Two Weeks | Quantocracy says:
    February 1, 2016 at 3:52 pm

    […] Podcast: Algorithmic Forecasting with Larry Williams [Better System Trader] […]

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