192 – “Predicting profitability using machine learning” – Ernie Chan

Quant trader Ernie Chan from PredictNow.ai joins us to discuss how to predict the profitability of trades using machine learning, including:

  • Unconditional probability and the problem with win% in backtest reports,
  • Why “conditional probability” is much more useful for a trader and how to apply conditional probabilities to capital allocation,
  • Why you should use Machine Learning for risk management and capital allocation only (and not for building trading strategies),
  • Why feature selection and feature importance ranking are so valuable,
  • Plus, the best ML techniques for prediction, how simple should trading strategies be, insights from cluster-based feature selection, do these techniques really work, ML as a crystal ball and much more!

You can discover more from Ernie at https://www.predictnow.ai

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