146 – Using indicators to predict stock movements with John MacLeod

Predictive modelling is used in many aspects of our lives today..

in the banking and insurance industries to assess the risks and behaviours of customers…

in marketing to anticipate customer purchasing behaviours…

in meteorology to forecast the weather…

in fact there are too many applications to list here but predictive modelling has the potential to be applied pretty much anywhere, even in the markets.

Now you may be saying ‘wait, I’m not in the business of predicting, my trading is all reactive, I don’t predict, I just follow the markets’.

I’m not going to go into that argument today but before you make any decisions or judgements about this episode I invite you to take a listen because we discuss the predictability of indicators, and some of the things you’ll hear in our chat about indicators are very interesting, no matter how you use them in your own trading.

Our guest for this episode is John MacLeod. John has a background in using Predictive Modelling, working as a consultant to develop predictive models in consumer banking and mass marketing, and has applied this expertise to the stockmarkets as well.

Some of the things you’ll discover in my chat with John are:

Predictive modelling – what it is and how can it be used in trading to select stocks that may be setup for a big move,
Using indicators as predictors and 3 major conclusions John has made by analyzing the predictability of 160 indicators – these results may surprise you!
The accuracy of predictive modelling, which factors can impact accuracy and the easiest time periods to produce high accuracy predictions,
How data derived from indicators can actually be more effective as predictors then the indicators themselves,
Plus much more.

''No model is a perfect predictor. It is an estimator.'' - John MacLeod Click To Tweet