A huge part of algorithmic trading is about stacking the odds in our favour. Finding statistical edges, and identifying times when probabilities indicate that market conditions are either favourable for a trade or perhaps unfavourable for a trade. And although probabilities aren’t certainties, … [Read more...]
149 – Trading in Probabilities – Scott Hodson
148 – Plugging holes in strategies and portfolios – Ryan Moffett
In this episode we’re going to be talking about holey strategies and portfolios. Now, when I say "holey" I’m not talking about religion, divine intervention, holy grails or anything like that, although we could probably apply todays topics to those type of strategies that need divine intervention … [Read more...]
Ugly market face
Gwen was a serious "two face". Sometimes she looked REALLY attractive... But other times she looked like the beast from Beauty and the Beast... So, who is Gwen? Seinfeld fans will recognise this storyline as the episode where Jerry discovers his new girlfriend Gwen is much less … [Read more...]
From lost art school grad to junior in a hedge fund
A few days ago I received this inspirational email from BST listener James: Firstly, thanks James for sharing and congrats on the transition from lost, art school grad to junior in a hedge fund. Sounds like a good move! :-) It's great to hear BST has helped on your trading journey- that's … [Read more...]
147 – Building trading strategies with confidence – Adrian Reid
Confidence is a powerful thing – when people have it they can do some pretty amazing things, but on the opposite side, a lack of confidence can be debilitating too, and for traders it can have some similar effects, especially when the performance of a strategy starts to suffer and a trader has money … [Read more...]
The Wolf and the Lion
This week I was reviewing the '50 lessons from top traders' ebook I released last year, potentially to update and re-release it, and reading through the lessons from traders on the podcast, there was 1 particular theme that really stood out to me this time... But first I want to share a quick … [Read more...]
The dangerous lure of perfection
Last weekend we held one of our regular coaching calls with the Breakout Strategies Masterclass, and breakout trading specialist Tomas Nesnidal made an interesting point that I wanted to share with you today. It’s a danger that can lure traders in, both beginner and experienced, delaying our … [Read more...]
Rethinking the ‘impossible’
This weekend marks the 54th anniversary of a remarkable human achievement... People said it couldn't be done... many had tried, and everyone had failed. They said it was impossible... we just weren't built for it. Experts and athletes believed the human body just wasn't capable of running a … [Read more...]
What do you expect?
Have you ever had an expectation and then was completely disappointed or shocked? Then let me tell you a story from when I was a boy. Cricket is a popular sport in many countries around the world, including Australia. I remember as a kid, my dad would get up out of bed all hours of the … [Read more...]
146 – Using indicators to predict stock movements with John MacLeod
Predictive modelling is used in many aspects of our lives today.. in the banking and insurance industries to assess the risks and behaviours of customers... in marketing to anticipate customer purchasing behaviours... in meteorology to forecast the weather... in fact there are too many … [Read more...]
Are the ‘easy pickings’ gone?
Just wanted to share a quick thought to finish up the week, it’s a blog post called 'The easy pickings' on the irrelevant investor website. The author, Michael Batnick, makes the point that "what once was easy turned into something quite difficult" and you can definitely see that in some aspects … [Read more...]
The breakout timing pyramid for better quality trades
The Great Pyramid of Giza is one of the 7 wonders of the ancient world. It's a truly impressive structure, and at an initial height of 146.5 metres (481 feet) was the tallest man-made structure in the world for almost 4000 years. It's estimated the pyramid consists of over 2.3 million stone … [Read more...]
‘Undiscovered’ trading wisdom – Part 2
Jim Rohn was an American entrepreneur, author and motivational speaker, presenting seminars worldwide for more than 40 years, winning awards and authoring books, audio and video programs. He even mentored high profile motivational speaker Tony Robbins early in Tony's career. And Jim's 'rags to … [Read more...]
False breakouts hurt
I remember the first time I visited Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, I was absolutely astonished at the amount of traffic. Thousands of scooters whizzing past at a crazy speed made it seem almost impossible to walk across the road without being hit. On some streets, you can’t really wait for the … [Read more...]
145 – Protecting capital through proper risk management with Aaron Brown
I think it’s pretty safe to say we’ve had some interesting times in the markets so far this year. There has been an increase in uncertainty, higher volatility and even outside of the markets there have been a number of events that seem to be impacting the markets. Some traders may be seeing … [Read more...]
Correction, Crash or Bear?
I saw an interesting article on CNBC last week suggesting the current market volatility is reminiscent of the 1987 crash. "It's a good deal more volatile than almost anything else you've seen" veteran trader Art Cashin says. I haven't studied the crash of 1987 and I definitely wasn't trading … [Read more...]
“It is obvious that the method works well”
Last week I received an email that made me both extremely jealous and very proud. The email was from 'build emini breakout strategies fast' student Henrik, who was emailing me while on holiday to the Canary Islands. I've never been to the Canary Islands, however I have travelled around Spain … [Read more...]
The Apple Portfolio Strategy
Apple is now one of the most valuable companies in the world, but back in 1997 it was a very different story. The company was in extremely poor condition, losing tens of millions of dollars every quarter, trying to sustain a huge amount of products, and with no clear strategy. Then Steve Jobs … [Read more...]
Stitching data for a more ‘balanced’ backtest
When traders set in-sample and out-of-sample periods for their backtests, it's common just to pick some dates that split the data into a pre-defined percentage or range. The trouble with this approach is that it often doesn't take into account the type of market environments that exist in those … [Read more...]
144 – Building dynamic trading strategies with TraderJanie
One of the biggest issues we have as systematic and algorithmic traders is that the markets are dynamic and constantly changing, however its quite common to build trading strategies that are static and are designed to take advantage of an optimal set of conditions which don’t actually last very … [Read more...]
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